WHAT IF?

The study of a victorious Nazi Germany through the practicality of the strategies presented in Fatherland and The Man in the High Castle

What if Nazi Germany won WWII? This is a question poised and analyzed in the novels Fatherland by Robert Harris and The Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick. This fiction genre, alternate history, has contemplated many different realities based on turning points in history where outcomes differ from the actual events. But dominating these novels are the potential differences to society found in alternative conclusions from WWII, specifically the victory of Hitler’s National Socialist Party. This alternate reality is so intriguing, not only because of the radical differences found between the societies of Nazi Germany and modern day or because of the relative recentness of the war, but because the Reich could have won. Fatherland’s presentation, of a successful German strategy in WWII, is more conceivable as it does not rely on differing events before the war, unlike The Man in the High Castle. Otherwise, both novels present a practical case for an alternate ending of WWII. This shall be proved by analyzing the events in the novels, which cause the alternate history, in the context of the influences and mechanics that affected WWII strategy. First, whether their success would lead to German victory and second, whether their success is possible when tactical maneuvers of the war are changed. An understanding of the actual events and mechanics having taken place in the European theatre of WWII must be established.

WWII started on September 1^st, 1939 with Germany’s invasion of Poland. By 1941 Europe would be in German control as countries fell to the German Blitzkrieg, announced their neutrality or allied with the European power. This, and all else accomplished by the Germans, would be done so with the Wehrmacht (Army), Luftwaffe (Air Force) and/or Kriegsmarine (Navy). In 1940 the British question arose and the Battle of Britain ensued in July. This was a battle for air superiority between the Luftwaffe and RAF (Royal Air Force) as the Reich prepared for Operation Sea Lion, the invasion of Britain. By September, however, Germany commenced the Blitz, terror bombing of London and other English cities, in an attempt to subdue the enemy. This would lead to the abandonment of Operation Sea Lion as the RAF used this time to recuperate its strength. On June 22^nd, 1941 Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa, the invasion of Russia, and stopped short miles from Moscow. One year later in 1942 Plan Blue was put into effect as Germans pushed forward on the southern Russo-front in an attempt to take industrialized west Russia and Caucasus oil near Baku. This did not happen as Blue failed to complete its objectives, in part due to the massive blood bath and defeat suffered at Stalingrad. During the entire span of the war the Battle of the Atlantic raged on. This was an initially successful attempt by the Kriegsmarine to cut Europe, or more specifically Britain, off from America by sinking Allied ships carrying supplies headed for the British Isles. The tide of this battle turned in favor of the Allies, and would stay such until the end of the war in March 1943 after years of German encrypted Enigma messages being read by the British. Finally on June 6^th, 1944(D-Day) British, American and Canadian forces landed in Normandy, France under Operation Overlord, the invasion of North-Western Nazi controlled Europe. This was the largest seaborne invasion ever in history, troops having built up in the U.K. and crossed the Channel to continental Europe (Armitage). Following WWII was the Cold War between the USA and the USSR caused by disdain for each other’s opposing ideals and the implications of the Atomic bomb on warfare. How do the novels compare with the history? What turning points have they altered in favor of Germany?

First, in the analysis of conceivability, is Fatherland with its alternative history beginning in 1942. The success of Plan Blue leads to ultimate success of Barbarossa;

Victory over Russia in the spring of ‘43...The Wehrmacht summer offensive of the year before had cut Moscow off from the Caucasus, separating the Red armies from the Baku oilfields. Stalin’s war machine had simply ground to a halt for want of fuel. (Harris 85)

Indeed, by 1942 victory over Russia was entrusted in and dependant on the success of Blue. The reason is, as the novel describes; the Russian war machine, like that of any modernized nation, required sufficient amounts of oil to function effectively against so powerful an enemy, such as Germany. Dependency on oil in modern warfare made Baku the perfect target for Germany due to the vast amount of oil it produced; “In 1940, for example, 22.2 million tons of oil were extracted from Baku which comprised nearly 72% of all the oil extracted in the entire USSR.” (Agarunov et al.). Put quite bluntly by Ribbentrop, German Foreign Minister during the war; “When the Russians run out of oil, we’ll bring them to their knees.” (Ibid). The captures of 72% of Russian produced oil is quite sufficient to, “bring them to their knees”. Even though Stalin’s Scorched Earth Policy, the destruction and denial of all supplies that might fall into German possession in their advance, would have surely left the wells destroyed prior to falling into German hands, the capture of this region would have left Russia not only without oil to fuel an army but also without the industry to build an army. Baku would also have quenched Germany’s great thirst for oil and the Caucasus region proved a possible launch point into Allied oil fields in Iran. As for completing Blue, this is made practical by concentrating army groups A and B on Stalingrad, overwhelming the enemy there and then in Baku. Dissimilar from history, as the opposite took place, the over expansion of troops in the Caucasus on multiple fronts; “Hitler’s strategy of fighting on two fronts-Stalingrad and the Caucasus-spread his resources too thin and proved disastrous.” (Ibid). This was the plan of action General Manstein objected to, wishing to reinforce his Sixth Army seizing Stalingrad with additional forces already in the Caucasus. (Ibid). Conclusively the capture of the Baku region in Fatherland is both a practical possibility and truly the blow needed to finish off Russia and the Eastern front.

Meanwhile the British situation was also fairing well for Germany;

Peace with the British in ‘44...all U-boats had been recalled to their bases on the Atlantic coast to be equipped with a new cipher system: the treacherous British...had been reading the Fatherland’s codes. Picking off merchant shipping had been easy after that. England was starved into submission. (Harris 85).

The novel speaks of German codes being read by the British. This refers to the Ultra program, and the decryption of Enigma coded messages sent by U-boats permitting the British the advantage of knowing where the enemy is and what he plans to do. With record numbers of U-boats in the Atlantic in 1943 British Prime Minister Churchill was correct in stating that; “It was thanks to Ultra that we won the war.” (Kozaczuk). The startling strategic advantage maintained by the British with Ultra was necessary to combat the U-boats that Churchill feared could finish Britain; “The only thing that ever really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril.” (Sheffield). Churchill’s fear was rightfully placed, his sea locked country having been dependant on shipping from America which was ravaged by the Kriegsmarine along the journey. In fact, the German navy was sinking 3 million tons of shipping every three months at its peak in 1942, U-boats accounting for about half of the damage. The bare minimum Britain needed to survive in this same three month period was 11 million tons (Gibbons 15). Therefore Churchill himself admits that Britain could not have held if they were unable to read U-boat radio transmissions, and would have succumbed to shipping loses;

If Germany had prevented merchant ships from carrying food, raw materials, troops and their equipment from North America to Britain, the outcome of World War Two could have been radically different. Britain might have been starved into submission... (Sheffield).

Obviously, the Germans should have drastically revamped Enigma as the British in Bletchley Park had deciphered it, but this did not happen due to overconfidence in the code’s un-breakability on the Germans’ part. Of course the machine has an estimated 200 quintillion possible codes, so the confidence is understandable, but none the less U-boat commanders repeatedly complained about preemptive strikes by enemy air and naval forces after sending encrypted radio messages (Azzole). As such, the changing of the Enigma code would have very conceivably resulted in the submission of Britain in history as it did in Fatherland, though overconfidence in history may have made it unlikely for the code to be changed sufficiently.

The final turning point of WWII, in Harris’ Fatherland, is Cold War brought on by peace between the USA and Germany;

Peace with the Americans in ‘46...When America defeated Japan by detonating an Atomic bomb, the Fuhrer had sent a V-3 rocket to explode in the skies over New York to prove he could retaliate in kind if struck. After that...A nuclear stalemate which the diplomats called the Cold War (Harris 85-86).

This, like the historical Cold War between the USA and the USSR, was brought on by their mutual scorn for the other’s ideologies and the technological ability each power had to strike at each other with nuclear weapons. Obviously, having just fought WWII on opposing sides, the evident contrasts between each country’s government, and all of the war propaganda that their populaces have been exposed to, contributes to the disdain between the USA and Germany. Further tension is found in the nation’s abilities to destroy each other swiftly. In the novel; the ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) the Reich launched at New York City was actually under development during the war and named the A10 and was simply a further development of the A4 or V2 rocket. Also the atomic bomb, developed in the USA, had already been used against Japan at the end of WWII. The Cold War, resulting from Harris’ WWII, is very believable as the circumstances mirror those of the historical Cold War between the USA and the USSR. Overall, Fatherland proves very convincing in the novel’s interpretation of three major events leading to a successful Reich. What events has The Man in the High Castle dealt with in Dick’s interpretation and what differing event before the war makes the novel less convincing?

Dick’s, The Man in the High Castle, begins its alternate history on February 13^th, 1933 with the successful assassination of FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) in Miami by Joe Zangara. This results in the USA having a President who fails to sufficiently industrialize the country and instigate anti-Nazi propaganda needed for effect as an Allied power during the war. In the European theatre, Germany successfully defeated Russia in Operation Barbarossa within the first year. Dick also has Germany successfully undertake and complete Operation Sea Lion by continuing the Battle of Britain until Luftwaffe air superiority is achieved; the Blitz of British civilians never taking place. As for the USA, now much weaker than in the actual war, it is invaded by the Reich in the East coast and the Japanese in the West coast. As a result, the USA is also defeated and peace follows in 1947. Here are the three major events fabricated by Dick in his interpretation of a successful Reich. Unlike Fatherland not all come from German victories as one is a failure of the USA. Thus, how do these hold up to deeper study considering the dynamic mechanics of WWII that this novel has but touched on?

First, the fall of Russia; “...in 1941...the collapse of Russia.” (Dick 9). In Germany’s quick triumph over Russia the advantages made, towards ultimate victory in WWII, are profound. This is to remove an entire front from Germany’s war, and as early as 1941, allowing millions of troops to be brought to other fronts such as the Atlantic wall, North Africa or the creation of their own fronts in the Middle East and Asia. The defeat of Russia would mark the loss of a major Allied power, without which Allied victory over the Reich is unlikely at best. This is not only because of the lack of a Russian front taking up German troops, but the Russian resources of oil and industry would aid Germany’s war machine immensely in this still early stage of the war. But what of the conceivability of the mechanics used in Russia’s defeat;

Moscow could have been taken...The strategic advantages of a drive on Moscow in strength outweigh the risks...Moscow was the nerve center for communications in European Russia, possession of those transport links effectively cuts the country in half (Shrier).

Indeed the only way for Russia to have fallen so hard in the first year of Barbarossa would have been for the total capture of Moscow by the concentration of German forces in seize of the capital. This city is important not only as it is the nation’s capital but also because it has the “transport links” or railroads meant to network and connect the large country. With these lost, Russia, North and South of Moscow would be divided proving a successful strategy of divide and conquer on the German’s part; “...the Wehrmacht would have taken Moscow in September1941 and knocked Russia out of the war for good.” (Hooker). Though, in history, it is difficult to comprehend utter Russian surrender before the winter of 1941 as in the novel. This favorable Russian season would benefit the Russians with some time to organize before a final blow by Germany is released in the summer of 1942. The swift fall of Russia, in the novel, may be explained by the capture or death of their leader Joseph Stalin. During the actual battle of Moscow Stalin did persist in occupying his capital instead of moving to safer ground (Armitage 234). Perhaps Dick has this stubbornness work against the Russian people with their leaders defeat and inevitably the country’s. Hence the concentration of Barbarossa in taking Moscow, and thus Russia, is an effective strategy though perhaps not conceivably leading to as swift a Russian surrender as Dick describes. The defeat of Russia means ultimate German victory one way or another, yet Dick’s optimism does not end.

In the novel, Dick describes further victory in Operation Sea Lion; “Goring...it was his Luftwaffe that knocked out those English radar stations and then finished off the RAF.” (Dick 78). Such a victory would leave America no place to prepare for and launch D-Day. As Britain completes Germany’s Atlantic wall making Nazi Europe is safe from American interference. The fall of the UK would also leave British colonies vulnerable to the Axis powers. This success is dependent on the success of the Battle of Britain, which the Germans were winning in history but abandoned for a civilian Blitz that only strengthened British internal moral; “Evidence shows that if Germany had kept up the pressure long enough, the RAF would have been forced to be disengaged from the fight or be destroyed.” (McCanne et al.). Therefore, had the Germans held strong with the Battle of Britain it is very possible that Sea Lion could have been a success as air superiority was the main requirement for a successful invasion of Britain (Goulter). Also, as mentioned in the novel, attacks on British radar stations would have removed the grand advantage of early warning information used by RAF fighter command; “...attacks on radar stations were not given high enough priority.” (McCanne et al.). This is most certainly true as such priority would have ultimately reduced Luftwaffe casualties and perhaps encouraged Germany to persist in the Battle of Britain, as it is now known they should have, though, they would have had to commence Operation Sea Lion before American intervention which would be triggered by Pearl Harbor. In Dick’s novel, America joins the war even earlier after the fall of Russia, yet here they are unable to successfully influence the war as they have not the ability due to lack of industrialization. On D-Day, success was brought on by complete allied air and naval superiority just as Sea Lion would have been had the Battle of Britain been won;

Had Hitler and the Luftwaffe remained focused on these targets instead of redirecting the effort to a militarily insignificant terror bombing of London, the outcome of the Battle of Britain, and consequently Operation SEA LION, might well have been very different. (McCanne et al.)

This is confirmed by British General Montgomery who stated; “If we lose the war in the air, we lose the war, and we lose it very quickly.” (Goulter)

Finally, in The Man in the High Castle the American question is answered quite efficiently with complete victory and capture of the USA by both Germany and Japan; “In 1947, on Capitulation Day...” (Dick 9). A plan to invade America was prepared by both Axis powers in history, but only made possible in the novel because of the alternate history handicap of an unindustrialized USA. This is not to say that a successful invasion of America, by Germany, could not have been accomplished with an industrialized USA, but this is not in question, what is in question is the conceivability of the novel’s circumstances. Dick has de-industrialized the USA in WWII by having FDR, a single person, killed some six years prior to the war. Undervaluing the purpose of a quality leader is not the idea here; it is that a single person does not industrialize a nation, a nation does. To suggest that the USA would not industrialize by the means of others, with the loss of FDR is abysmal, yet the simple fact is that this is an alternate history of USA infrastructure before the war, not WWII tactics during the war that are being analyzed. The whole of events, in Dick’s WWII, that were affected by the USA in history are now inconceivable. An inability has been handed to America not by events in the war, or even by Germany, but rather by an aggravated Italian, therefore making Dick’s case unrealistic in the realms of this study.

In conclusion, Fatherland’s representation of a victorious Reich is more convincing not because The Man in the High Castle’s representation strays drastically further from the essence of WWII tactical practicality, but because Dick’s version includes an unrealistic portrayal of a disabled USA not realizing the potential the country had in history. Both authors’ dealings with the Russian situation effectively correct mistakes, made by Germany during these campaigns, subsequently leading to conceivable victory. These corrections are common in that both include the concentration of German military might towards a singular common goal; the capture of the Baku oil and Moscow. The only questionable element here is the oddly swift surrender of Russia in The Man in the High Castle before the winter of 1941. Likewise, the authors’ dealings with the British situation are both sensible solutions leading to believable triumph. This time the solutions vary in both nature and result; new German encryptions leading to British peace by supply starvation and persistence in the Battle of Britain leading to success of Sea Lion. A questionable element in Dick’s novel arises as no limit on time is present for the execution of Sea Lion as the USA is unable to effectively intervene in the situation. This exemplifies the major discrepancy of the novels’ plausibility; the American situation. Fatherland does a fine job dealing with this by predicting cold war between these rival, nuclear armed superpowers, just as what happened between the USA and USSR in history. Dick does not do a fine job, as he enters in the equation of his WWII alternate history that of an alternate past affecting the state of American infrastructure and thus jeopardizing the realism of his WWII scenario otherwise maintained by only altering tactical maneuvers of the war. He changed a fundamental element by assassinating FDR; this being the ability of all to wage war during WWII as they did in history. Harris, on the other hand, preserves this by maintaining history’s happenings up until 1942, three years into the war. This ensures a more realistic outcome of the war than that of a novel changing history another nine years prior. Of course, both novels strive to analyze the past potential of a society so greatly contrasting our own, to have been instead. Both novels, through the concept of different tactics in WWII, impose the idea of what if? Fatherland is more effective because it asks what if Germany had been more tactically successful, while The Man in the High Castle asks what if America had failed where they had succeeded in history.

Works Cited

1. Agayev, Vagif, Fuad Akhundov, Fikrat T. Aliyev, and Mikhail Agarunov. "World War II and Azerbaijan." Azerbaijan International. 1995. CNN, Washington Post, BBC, NPR-US. 07 Dec. 2006 .

2. Armitage, Michael, Terry Charman, Peter Kornicki, John Kornicki, G. T. Tiedeman, John Stanier, and Lord Lewin, comps. World War II Day by Day. China: Dorling Kindersley, 2004.

3. Azzole, Pete. "ULTRA: THE SILVER BULLET." University of Cambridge. 26 Nov. 1996. Journal of the U.S. Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association. 07 Dec. 2006 .

4. Dick, Philip K. The Man in the High Castle. New York: Vintage Books, 1962. 9 & 78.

5. Gibbons, David. The Timechart History of World War II. London: Worth P, 2003. 15.

6. Goulter, Christina. "The Battle of Britain: the Air Perspective." Royal United Services Institute. 20 Oct. 2006. Military History Circle. 07 Dec. 2006 .

7. Harris, Robert. Fatherland. Croydon: Arrow Books, 1992. 85-86.

8. Hooker, R. D. ""the World Will Hold Its Breath": Reinterpreting Operation Barbarossa." Parameters. 11 Mar. 1999. US Army War College Quarterly. 07 Dec. 2006 .

9. Kozaczuk, Wladyslaw. Enigma. University Publications of America, 1984.

10. McCanne, Randy, Greg D. Olson, and Dario E. Teicher. OPERATION SEA LION: a JOINT CRITICAL ANALYSIS. Joint Forces Staff College. 30 Aug. 2002. 13 Dec. 2006.

11. Sheffield, Gary. "The Battle of the Atlantic." BBC. 13 Dec. 2006 .

12. Shrier, Patrick. "Operation Barbarossa: the Ultimate Strategic Miscalculation." Military History Online. 06 Aug. 2006. Armchair General, NGA TOA. 07 Dec. 2006 .